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Intro to History Matching and Uncertainty Analysis

These videos were prepared as lectures for the Groundwater Modelling topic of the Groundwater Hydrology course at Flinders University. They aim to introduce history matching and uncertainty quantification in the context of groundwater modelling for decision-support and provide a starting point for those who are new to the field. 

The videos provide an overview of the core concepts, without diving into excessive detail. Throughout the videos, links are provided to other videos and additional reading material which should be consulted for further learning.

How to apply the concepts in practice is demonstrated through tutorials. These tutorials take you step-by-step through how to use industry standard software (PEST and PEST++) to implement and interpret common history matching and uncertainty analysis tasks.

There are four videos which should be watched in the following order. Each is approximately 1h long:

  1. Introduction to history matching (lecture): https://vimeo.com/619711764
  2. Uncertainty 101 (webinar): https://gmdsi.org/blog/uncertainty-in-groundwater-modelling-101/
  3. Uncertainty Analysis in practice (lecture): https://vimeo.com/619713327
  4. Model Complexity (webinar): https://gmdsi.org/blog/how-complex-should-a-groundwater-model-be/

In tandem with watching the videos, at least the following tutorials should be completed:

  1. Model Calibration: https://gmdsi.org/blog/calibration-a-simple-model/
  2. Linear Analysis: https://gmdsi.org/blog/linear-uncertainty-analysis/
  3. Data Worth: https://gmdsi.org/blog/data-worth-analysis/
  4. Non-Linear Analysis: https://gmdsi.org/blog/non-linear-uncertainty-analysis/

Other tutorials can be found at https://gmdsi.org/education/tutorials/. It is highly recommended you complete them.

Video 1

Video 2