Date: 28th February 2023
This webinar had two presenters.
The first is Chris Li (from CDM Smith). Chris delivered a talk entitled ‘The “Cinderella Syndrome” of groundwater modelling, and overcoming it through risk-orientated uncertainty analysis’ at the recent Australian Groundwater Conference.
It was highly acclaimed. So we asked him to make his talk a little longer, and allow the rest of us to benefit from hearing it. Here is what he will talk about in his own worlds.
- “This groundwater model can fit field observations really well, but how much faith can we put in its predictions?”
- “Can we perform stochastic modelling without blowing project budgets?”
- “How can we make our uncertainty analysis easier to understand for non-technical stakeholders?”
Chris will explore these topics using real-world project examples.
The second speaker will be Joel Hall from Western Australia Department of Water and Environmental Regulation. Joel summarises his talk as follows.
The challenges that a regulator faces when attempting to use uncertainty analysis in decision-making are of a different nature to that of quantifying uncertainty using a numerical model. In a general sense, the major challenges are non-technical (although there are many technical obstacles that need to be overcome) but are more likely to be institutional and/or arise from gaps in policy. In this session we will discuss some of the major issues and propose a roadmap to make the use of uncertainty analysis in regulatory decision-making the status quo. This will include subjects such as the general lack of guidance in risk-based decision-making where there is a small or medium risk of a “bad thing happening” as well as some of the more realpolitik challenges of changing policy.